Has the Market Peaked?

If you would have hypothetically invested in the 10-year Treasury note a year ago on February 18, 2019 and sold it a year later on February 18, 2020, you would have had a 10.7% return  according to the Federal Reserve H.15 report. Since U.S Treasury bills, notes and bonds are backed by the U.S. Treasury, they are considered to be very conservative investments. The question that surfaces here is, "If this Treasury investment did so well, why didn't the equity market do the opposite?" since that is their normal correlation.

If in 2019, the S&P 500 had its best performance in six years as the 10-year Treasury market had a double digit gain, what does this tell us about the stock market's actual value right now? Only time will answer this question fully in 2020 or beyond. When both asset classes (stocks & bonds) seem to be rising together it usually suggests that though investors are in the stock market they are also considering and investing in the bond market for market stability along with their stock positions.

In other words, the consensus has not yet tipped fully to the "stocks are absolutely overpriced" camp this year. With an economy that continues to improve itself, though ever so slightly, the stock market is still being favored.

Success in all your efforts,


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John R. Kinkead

Vice President of Wealth Advisement